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Can India play a balancing role for the US in the Asia Pacific Region? Printable Version PRINTABLE VERSION
by , Canada Aug 28, 2007
Peace & Conflict   Opinions
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Can India play a balancing role for the US in the Asia Pacific Region? Facing the prospect of a multi-polar world, the US is now facing more than ever the urge to consolidate alliances to fulfill its self-proclaimed mandate of ensuring global stability. While some analysts argue that India, like Japan, will become an instrument of American foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), others think India will rather drag down the US influence. I believe that India is likely to emerge as a balancing power for both the US and China, while keeping relatively independent from both powers while seeking not to antagonize them in the pursuit of its national interests. In this paper, I will reflect India's current position and motivations in the Asia Pacific region to see how they differ from that of other key players, focusing on such countries as the United States and China as well as members of key multilateral bodies.

To start with, it is only recently did the international community start looking at India as a potential balancing factor for the US or China in the APR. This is not unrelated to its tremendous economic performance reflected by GDP growth rates approaching 10% per year in the past 10 years. In fact, the well-discussed BRIC Report estimates that Indian GDP will surpass that of Japan by 2040 (Jain, 2006), a miracle which can be explained by referring to English speaking India's specialisation in the information-technology business, which makes it a primary destination for outsourcing (Friedman, 2006).

However, just like China always claims to still be a developing country, one can not ignore the harsh reality for most Indians; the absolute number of people living below the poverty line in populous India is increasing and that its PPP-GDP only accounts for half that of China (Kueh, 2006). In this context, it is safe to assert that India still has a long way to go before it can catch up to the US or China, let alone supplant them.

Similarly, India faces significant internal problems that might jeopardize its efforts to get involved in world affairs. The most salient is the conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir. Although most analysts doubt this will prevent India from becoming a major power in the region and although peace negotiations are in progress since 2004 (Ganguly, 2006), it remains that, especially after last week's bombings in Mumbai, these tensions could well degenerate into a nuclear war, which could certainly weaken India and slow its economic growth.

The global political situation resulting would depend on whether the United States sides with its long-term ally, Pakistan, or with one it increasingly considers as a strategic partner, India. In fact, being the world largest democracy and being located between China and the Middle East as well as being the home to the world's second largest Muslim population, India is now playing a prominent role in the ongoing War on Terror instigated by the United States. This event had the ironic effect of bringing together the world leader with a country that it marginalized since its 1998 nuclear tests. In the light of this process, one could argue that India is aligning itself with the US and will thus not push to affect change in an opposite direction in the APR.

However, one has to pay attention to the history of the US-India relations to make predictions about their future. At the onset of the Cold War, India positioned itself in the Non-Aligned Movement before siding with the USSR, after the normalization of Sino-American relations in 1972. Hence, India and the US do not have a lasting record of cooperation and friendship and neither does India and China, especially due to intimidation and border conflicts. However, there are reasons to believe that India may grow closer to China than to the US, although it will not overtly alienate or antagonize the latter, whose prevalent influence might however diminish.

Recent years have seen an intensification of Sino-India two-way trade (from USD 1 billion in late 1990s to USD 13 billion in 2004-05 (IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book, 2003-4, c.f. Jain and Mayer, N.A.), which is likely to increase even more due to the re-opening of the Silk Route at Nathu La pass. While examining these developments, some may think that China is simply seeking more allies in response to its isolation in the Post-Tiananmen Square period and turned towards India because of its persisting dislike of Japan, but some may also think - especially after they undertook their first joint naval exercise in 2003 (Saint-Mézard and Chin, 2006) - that China and India are plotting to get the Americans out of Asia.

Conscious of the implications that would have for their overall hegemony in the region and being opposed to India's project of building a pipeline to Iran, a country of the ''Axis of Evil'', the Bush administration pledged to assist India in key dual-use technologies (such as civil nuclear power, space programmes and high technology) (Saint-Mézard and Chin, 2006). This is definitely a good deal for India, which they can not ignore in eventual political decisions relating to the US in the APR.





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Je suis étudiante en économie du développement au Canada, présentement volontaire en prise en charge socioéconomique des personnes vivant avec le VIH SIDA au Burkina Faso. Je m'intéresse particulièment aux mouvements sociaux et aux questions d'équité et d'oppression.
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